Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

283.24 – 274.67

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

260 – 517

Prediction missed · off by 132.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.4 ±10.5

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 40.82Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 21.16Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 221.26Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 591.5 ±9.8

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 130.51Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 131.38Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 12.78Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7757, 11428, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7757, 11428, 3683

Auto

67.2 23%

Teleop

162.0 56%

Endgame

59.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1241, 3161, 6865

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 3161, 6865

Auto

27.9 10%

Teleop

176.6 65%

Endgame

66.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score283.2pts

Blue projected score274.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.6
Score range: 226–332
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 777 vs event baseline 273.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.4Season APEX591.5

67.2Auto27.9

162Teleop176.6

59.8Endgame66.1

20Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	66
teleop	141	312
endgame	65	139
foul	5	0
total	260	517

Result

Final score

260 – 517

Prediction missed · off by 132.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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