Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

310.78 – 578.11

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

368 – 581

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 376.4 ±11

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 117.93Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 191.53Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 1.32Rank 27Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 706.6 ±8.8

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 46.06Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 305.06Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 226.99Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6978, 1360, 11002

/ 100 compat

Projected

310.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6978, 1360, 11002

Auto

52.4 18%

Teleop

153.1 51%

Endgame

91.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7476, 1325, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

578.1 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7476, 1325, 4476

Auto

107.5 19%

Teleop

331.9 58%

Endgame

128.6 23%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score310.8pts

Blue projected score578.1pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -267.3
Score range: 263–626
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 949 vs event baseline 268.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

376.4Season APEX706.6

52.4Auto107.5

153.1Teleop331.9

91.9Endgame128.6

28Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	107
teleop	144	292
endgame	100	152
foul	50	30
total	368	581

Result

Final score

368 – 581

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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