Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

147.03 – 340.49

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

30 – 440

Prediction correct · off by 108.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.3 ±9.8

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 67.33Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 19.74Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 59.96Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 601.4 ±9.8

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 27.53Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 286.57Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 26.39Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5672, 10514, 2013

/ 100 compat

Projected

147 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5672, 10514, 2013

Auto

30.6 21%

Teleop

95.3 65%

Endgame

20.2 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7659, 1114, 2852

/ 100 compat

Projected

340.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7659, 1114, 2852

Auto

73.4 23%

Teleop

176.1 54%

Endgame

76.7 24%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147pts

Blue projected score340.5pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -193.5
Score range: 98–389
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 273.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.3Season APEX601.4

30.6Auto73.4

95.3Teleop176.1

20.2Endgame76.7

21Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	95
teleop	16	286
endgame	4	59
foul	0	0
total	30	440

Result

Final score

30 – 440

Prediction correct · off by 108.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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