Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

533.98 – 449

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

333 – 471

Prediction missed · off by 111.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 899.8 ±9.3

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 155.53Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 87.08Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 291.37Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.2 ±10

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX -31.14Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 295.12Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 185.02Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1241, 9562, 2056

/ 100 compat

Projected

534 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 9562, 2056

Auto

93.7 17%

Teleop

340.7 63%

Endgame

107.9 20%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6854, 1325, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

449 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6854, 1325, 1360

Auto

76.6 18%

Teleop

235.3 55%

Endgame

115.7 27%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score534pts

Blue projected score449pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85
Score range: 400–583
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 804 vs event baseline 270.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

899.8Season APEX558.2

93.7Auto76.6

340.7Teleop235.3

107.9Endgame115.7

1Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	78
teleop	131	258
endgame	109	115
foul	15	20
total	333	471

Result

Final score

333 – 471

Prediction missed · off by 111.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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