Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.53 – 149.12

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.6 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 6.16Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 217.3Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 25.07Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.8 ±11

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 20.03Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 116.44Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 12.65Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 4476, 7757

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 4476, 7757

Auto

58.3 24%

Teleop

108.7 44%

Endgame

80.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6865, 6978, 6975

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6865, 6978, 6975

Auto

28.6 21%

Teleop

80.4 58%

Endgame

28.7 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score248.5pts

Blue projected score149.1pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.4
Score range: 100–298
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 271.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.6Season APEX217.8

58.3Auto28.6

108.7Teleop80.4

80.7Endgame28.7

13Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	15
teleop	146	69
endgame	109	59
foul	0	0
total	340	143

Result

Final score

340 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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