Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.16 – 15.1

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

344 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.6 ±9.3

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 42.73Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 192.72Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 28.71Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.3 ±12.1

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 17.15Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 33.54Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX -35.59Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2013, 3683, 10514

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.2 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2013, 3683, 10514

Auto

51.9 20%

Teleop

166.5 63%

Endgame

47.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11428, 6110, 6854

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11428, 6110, 6854

Auto

16.0 100%

Teleop

-16.1 0%

Endgame

13.5 100%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.76 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score264.2pts

Blue projected score15.1pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 249.1
Score range: -39–318
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 300.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.6Season APEX191.3

51.9Auto16

166.5Teleop-16.1

47.5Endgame13.5

35Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	17
teleop	201	7
endgame	65	45
foul	5	0
total	344	69

Result

Final score

344 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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