Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

295.1 – 101.7

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

316 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.3 ±9.8

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 213.95Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 50.21Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 30.94Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.9 ±11.6

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 26.92Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX 6.14Rank 27Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 68.64Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3683, 9062, 919

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3683, 9062, 919

Auto

55.7 19%

Teleop

162.6 55%

Endgame

74.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11428, 11002, 5672

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11428, 11002, 5672

Auto

17.2 17%

Teleop

39.7 40%

Endgame

41.7 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score295.1pts

Blue projected score101.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 193.4
Score range: 53–344
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 273.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.3Season APEX209.9

55.7Auto17.2

162.6Teleop39.7

74.8Endgame41.7

16Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	20
teleop	188	14
endgame	81	9
foul	0	0
total	316	43

Result

Final score

316 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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