Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

199.27 – 284.79

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

284 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 77 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 323 ±9.9

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -2.78Rank 27Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX -1.32Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 203.37Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548.1 ±9.8

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 22.6Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 150.11Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 112.08Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11002, 8349, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11002, 8349, 3683

Auto

37.8 18%

Teleop

111.0 54%

Endgame

55.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 919, 1241, 6978

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 919, 1241, 6978

Auto

31.9 11%

Teleop

179.2 64%

Endgame

68.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199.3pts

Blue projected score284.8pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.5
Score range: 150–334
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 638 vs event baseline 273.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

323Season APEX548.1

37.8Auto31.9

111Teleop179.2

55.7Endgame68.3

20Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	68
teleop	130	186
endgame	92	100
foul	0	0
total	284	354

Result

Final score

284 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 77 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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