Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

339.23 – 219.25

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

263 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 64.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 519.9 ±9.8

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 226.17Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 52.79Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 60.27Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 394.2 ±11

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 69.58Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 24.62Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 125.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 9263, 9062

/ 100 compat

Projected

339.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4476, 9263, 9062

Auto

52.2 16%

Teleop

186.0 57%

Endgame

90.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9562, 11428, 3161

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9562, 11428, 3161

Auto

34.6 15%

Teleop

134.0 59%

Endgame

57.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.49 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score339.2pts

Blue projected score219.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120
Score range: 169–389
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 535 vs event baseline 279.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

519.9Season APEX394.2

52.2Auto34.6

186Teleop134

90.6Endgame57.5

15Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	57
teleop	133	160
endgame	87	55
foul	0	0
total	263	272

Result

Final score

263 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 64.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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