Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

230.08 – 331.99

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

265 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.2 ±10.4

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 12.34Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 30.25Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 187.49Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 409.9 ±9.4

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 23.21Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 15.32Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 293.46Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2852, 7659, 1360

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2852, 7659, 1360

Auto

36.1 17%

Teleop

115.1 54%

Endgame

63.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10514, 6865, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

332 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10514, 6865, 1325

Auto

67.1 21%

Teleop

212.7 66%

Endgame

43.3 13%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score230.1pts

Blue projected score332pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.9
Score range: 180–382
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 640 vs event baseline 278.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.2Season APEX409.9

36.1Auto67.1

115.1Teleop212.7

63.1Endgame43.3

111Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	59
teleop	111	248
endgame	79	58
foul	35	10
total	265	375

Result

Final score

265 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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