Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

405.37 – 323.53

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

416 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 589.4 ±9.8

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 44.44Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 291.22Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 69.71Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.5 ±9.9

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 7.96Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 27.09Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 288.48Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7476, 2056, 5672

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7476, 2056, 5672

Auto

80.6 20%

Teleop

237.4 59%

Endgame

87.2 22%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8349, 6110, 1114

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 6110, 1114

Auto

82.4 25%

Teleop

183.9 56%

Endgame

65.0 20%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score405.4pts

Blue projected score323.5pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.8
Score range: 274–455
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 694 vs event baseline 275.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

589.4Season APEX569.5

80.6Auto82.4

237.4Teleop183.9

87.2Endgame65

38Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	87
teleop	219	44
endgame	81	147
foul	5	0
total	416	278

Result

Final score

416 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 28.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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