Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

241.18 – 556.7

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

246 – 797

Prediction correct · off by 122.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.5 ±9.8

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 28.6Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 201.46Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 11.12Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 862.8 ±8.8

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 247.91Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 252.68Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 56.11Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7659, 3683, 6865

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7659, 3683, 6865

Auto

41.7 18%

Teleop

149.7 65%

Endgame

40.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1325, 1114, 9562

/ 100 compat

Projected

556.7 pts

~3.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1325, 1114, 9562

Auto

130.6 24%

Teleop

314.8 57%

Endgame

103.2 19%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 3.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score241.2pts

Blue projected score556.7pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 36%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -315.5
Score range: 193–605
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1043 vs event baseline 268.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.5Season APEX862.8

41.7Auto130.6

149.7Teleop314.8

40.4Endgame103.2

82Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	145
teleop	150	472
endgame	42	180
foul	5	0
total	246	797

Result

Final score

246 – 797

Prediction correct · off by 122.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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