Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

18.44 – 166.36

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 174.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.2 ±11.6

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 46.77Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11002Montcalm Robotics

Season APEX 49.5Event APEX -43.6Rank 27Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 15.27Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 652.9 ±9.3

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX -29.66Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 121.16Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 74.86Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6110, 11002, 9263

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6110, 11002, 9263

Auto

11.5 50%

Teleop

21.6 94%

Endgame

-10.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8349, 1360, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 1360, 1241

Auto

28.2 17%

Teleop

89.3 53%

Endgame

51.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score18.4pts

Blue projected score166.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -147.9
Score range: -30–214
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 533 vs event baseline 269.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.2Season APEX652.9

11.5Auto28.2

21.6Teleop89.3

-10.2Endgame51.9

97Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	15
teleop	16	284
endgame	25	165
foul	5	5
total	64	469

Result

Final score

64 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 174.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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