Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.65 – 146.58

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.8 ±10.4

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 125.68Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 54.09Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 109.88Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.7 ±10.4

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 38.09Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 16.84Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7476Spongebotics

Season APEX 108.5Event APEX 91.65Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3161, 919, 5672

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3161, 919, 5672

Auto

38.5 13%

Teleop

177.9 60%

Endgame

81.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10514, 2852, 7476

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10514, 2852, 7476

Auto

35.9 25%

Teleop

83.2 58%

Endgame

24.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.49 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score289.7pts

Blue projected score146.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.1
Score range: 98–339
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 274.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.8Season APEX260.7

38.5Auto35.9

177.9Teleop83.2

81.8Endgame24.1

0Consistency136

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	21
teleop	87	48
endgame	48	25
foul	20	5
total	189	99

Result

Final score

189 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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