Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

412.82 – 381.62

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

400 – 491

Prediction missed · off by 61.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 517.2 ±10

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 244.11Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6978QuickStrike Niagara

Season APEX 120Event APEX 118.68Rank 14Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 50.03Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 671.4 ±9.3

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 242.77Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 64.11Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 74.74Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1325, 6978, 11428

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.8 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1325, 6978, 11428

Auto

60.0 14%

Teleop

244.6 58%

Endgame

114.0 27%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1114, 9062, 2013

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1114, 9062, 2013

Auto

98.2 26%

Teleop

200.5 53%

Endgame

79.6 21%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score412.8pts

Blue projected score381.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.2
Score range: 334–461
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 891 vs event baseline 266.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

517.2Season APEX671.4

60Auto98.2

244.6Teleop200.5

114Endgame79.6

0Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	76
teleop	229	284
endgame	69	126
foul	25	5
total	400	491

Result

Final score

400 – 491

Prediction missed · off by 61.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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