Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.07 – 473.22

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

322 – 640

Prediction correct · off by 178.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.6 ±10.5

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 185.54Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX -31.2Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -22.27Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 661.6 ±9.9

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 281.69Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 9.57Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 181.96Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4476, 6854, 6865

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4476, 6854, 6865

Auto

37.2 29%

Teleop

58.1 45%

Endgame

32.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2056, 6975, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

473.2 pts

~3.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2056, 6975, 3683

Auto

91.2 19%

Teleop

292.0 62%

Endgame

86.0 18%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.1pts

Blue projected score473.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -341.2
Score range: 86–519
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 962 vs event baseline 257.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.6Season APEX661.6

37.2Auto91.2

58.1Teleop292

32.8Endgame86

43Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	151
teleop	118	378
endgame	97	111
foul	50	0
total	322	640

Result

Final score

322 – 640

Prediction correct · off by 178.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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