Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

652.52 – 410.57

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

536 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 139.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 765.4 ±9.3

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 308.18Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 141.43Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 202.91Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 432.5 ±10

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 261.32Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 55.24Rank 15Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 94.01Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2056, 5672, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

652.5 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2056, 5672, 4476

Auto

126.7 19%

Teleop

413.5 64%

Endgame

110.5 17%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1325, 6975, 919

/ 100 compat

Projected

410.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1325, 6975, 919

Auto

69.1 17%

Teleop

254.0 62%

Endgame

89.7 22%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.87 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score652.5pts

Blue projected score410.6pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 242
Score range: 365–699
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 784 vs event baseline 256.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

765.4Season APEX432.5

126.7Auto69.1

413.5Teleop254

110.5Endgame89.7

2Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	47
teleop	282	123
endgame	140	73
foul	0	5
total	536	248

Result

Final score

536 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 139.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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