Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

493.25 – 81

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

534 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 632.8 ±9.4

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 51.12Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 169.87Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 272.26Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.6 ±9.8

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 36.7Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 18.12Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 26.18Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9062, 3161, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

493.3 pts

~3.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9062, 3161, 1325

Auto

89.4 19%

Teleop

280.0 58%

Endgame

110.9 23%

Strengths

· 1325 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6865, 8349, 5672

/ 100 compat

Projected

81 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6865, 8349, 5672

Auto

13.3 17%

Teleop

38.0 48%

Endgame

28.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.99 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score493.3pts

Blue projected score81pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 412.3
Score range: 27–547
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 300.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

632.8Season APEX190.6

89.4Auto13.3

280Teleop38

110.9Endgame28.1

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	9
teleop	316	25
endgame	143	12
foul	0	0
total	534	46

Result

Final score

534 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 37.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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