Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

155.5 – 108.83

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

141 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.7 ±11

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 50.88Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 83.13Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 21.49Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 457 ±10.5

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX -20.62Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 93.51Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 35.94Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9562, 11428, 7659

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9562, 11428, 7659

Auto

27.2 18%

Teleop

67.1 43%

Endgame

60.2 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6854, 1241, 7757

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6854, 1241, 7757

Auto

8.9 9%

Teleop

49.3 48%

Endgame

44.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score155.5pts

Blue projected score108.8pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.7
Score range: 61–204
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 264.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.7Season APEX457

27.2Auto8.9

67.1Teleop49.3

60.2Endgame44.9

44Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	34
teleop	81	16
endgame	39	0
foul	0	0
total	141	50

Result

Final score

141 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 36.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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