Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.61 – 275.82

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

361 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 144.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400 ±9.8

5672First Nations-STEM

Season APEX 76.8Event APEX 113.32Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 142.75Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9562Royal Robotics

Season APEX 126.1Event APEX 33.54Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.4 ±10.4

9062Critical Circuits

Season APEX 134.7Event APEX 126.32Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 74.93Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7757Atomic Dishwashers

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 74.57Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5672, 3683, 9562

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5672, 3683, 9562

Auto

55.1 19%

Teleop

161.2 56%

Endgame

72.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9062, 7659, 7757

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9062, 7659, 7757

Auto

40.7 15%

Teleop

143.1 53%

Endgame

87.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score289.6pts

Blue projected score275.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.8
Score range: 228–338
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 264.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400Season APEX269.4

55.1Auto40.7

161.2Teleop143.1

72.9Endgame87.9

104Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	11
teleop	233	12
endgame	72	36
foul	0	0
total	361	59

Result

Final score

361 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 144.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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