Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.77 – 213.31

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

336 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 830.4 ±9.9

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX -33.93Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 254.2Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 82.5Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.4 ±9.8

919PANTHERA TIGRIS

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 82.45Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 189.61Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6865Manitoulin Metal

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -58.75Rank 17Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6854, 1114, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6854, 1114, 1241

Auto

37.3 12%

Teleop

179.3 59%

Endgame

86.2 28%

Strengths

· 1114 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 919, 4476, 6865

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 919, 4476, 6865

Auto

36.2 17%

Teleop

142.5 67%

Endgame

32.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.33 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score302.8pts

Blue projected score213.3pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.5
Score range: 166–350
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 567 vs event baseline 263.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

830.4Season APEX380.4

37.3Auto36.2

179.3Teleop142.5

86.2Endgame32.7

124Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	61
teleop	153	130
endgame	92	40
foul	15	0
total	336	231

Result

Final score

336 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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