Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.71 – 378.88

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 114.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±9.8

8349Newbotics

Season APEX 76.4Event APEX 7.57Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2852DM Robotics

Season APEX 93.3Event APEX 32.16Rank 26Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3161Tronic Titans

Season APEX 184.5Event APEX 88.98Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694.6 ±10.5

2056OP Robotics

Season APEX 404.1Event APEX 251Rank 2Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1360Orbit Robotics

Season APEX 206.9Event APEX 74.86Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11428Horns of Steel

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 53.02Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8349, 2852, 3161

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8349, 2852, 3161

Auto

20.6 16%

Teleop

58.5 47%

Endgame

46.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2056, 1360, 11428

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.9 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2056, 1360, 11428

Auto

83.7 22%

Teleop

196.4 53%

Endgame

93.0 25%

Strengths

· 2056 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score128.7pts

Blue projected score378.9pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -250.2
Score range: 82–426
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 263.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.2Season APEX694.6

20.6Auto83.7

58.5Teleop196.4

46.5Endgame93

0Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	111
teleop	14	273
endgame	0	119
foul	0	0
total	24	503

Result

Final score

24 – 503

Prediction correct · off by 114.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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