Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

334.47 – 76.89

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

296 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 724.1 ±9.9

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 78.3Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6110Doc Botics

Season APEX 70Event APEX 61.64Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4476W.A.F.F.L.E.S.

Season APEX 284.5Event APEX 194.53Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.3 ±9.8

7659HNMCS Robotics

Season APEX 85Event APEX 62.58Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2013Cybergnomes

Season APEX 113.6Event APEX 50.68Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX -36.37Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1241, 6110, 4476

/ 100 compat

Projected

334.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1241, 6110, 4476

Auto

49.5 15%

Teleop

187.8 57%

Endgame

91.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7659, 2013, 9263

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7659, 2013, 9263

Auto

20.2 28%

Teleop

32.0 45%

Endgame

18.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.74 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score334.5pts

Blue projected score76.9pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 257.6
Score range: 28–383
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 270.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

724.1Season APEX299.3

49.5Auto20.2

187.8Teleop32

91.3Endgame18.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	18
teleop	200	70
endgame	65	17
foul	0	0
total	296	105

Result

Final score

296 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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