ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.17 – 169.96

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.3 ±9.8

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 46.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 101.14Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 116.65Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.1 ±10.4

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 16.85Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 73.08Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 80.03Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3756, 2702, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 2702, 3683

Auto

51.8 21%

Teleop

139.8 55%

Endgame

60.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9263, 4976, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

170 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9263, 4976, 4917

Auto

33.2 20%

Teleop

111.5 66%

Endgame

24.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score264.2pts

Blue projected score170pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 94.2
Score range: 132–302
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 462 vs event baseline 213.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.3Season APEX357.1

51.8Auto33.2

139.8Teleop111.5

60.8Endgame24.8

45Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	34
teleop	147	42
endgame	60	59
foul	10	10
total	317	145

Result

Final score

317 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Match videos

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