ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

401.81 – 246.66

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

438 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.6 ±9.3

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 180.6Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 21.75Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 199.46Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.8 ±10.4

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 0.32Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 94.29Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 152.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 610, 6875, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

401.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 610, 6875, 2200

Auto

83.3 21%

Teleop

240.2 62%

Endgame

64.5 17%

Strengths

· 2200 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10514, 5409, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10514, 5409, 9098

Auto

59.4 25%

Teleop

133.6 56%

Endgame

44.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score401.8pts

Blue projected score246.7pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 155.2
Score range: 209–440
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 748 vs event baseline 211.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.6Season APEX421.8

83.3Auto59.4

240.2Teleop133.6

64.5Endgame44.8

0Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	59
teleop	253	213
endgame	60	33
foul	25	5
total	438	310

Result

Final score

438 – 310

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 pts

Match videos

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