ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

554.07 – 254.08

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

446 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 84.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.6 ±9.3

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 25.14Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 246.42Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 282.51Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.3 ±9.8

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 43Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 98.2Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 112.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4308, 4678, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

554.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4308, 4678, 4946

Auto

99.3 18%

Teleop

310.2 57%

Endgame

136.3 25%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 2702, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 2702, 3683

Auto

53.3 22%

Teleop

133.2 55%

Endgame

57.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score554.1pts

Blue projected score254.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 300
Score range: 216–592
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 761 vs event baseline 208.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.6Season APEX544.3

99.3Auto53.3

310.2Teleop133.2

136.3Endgame57.4

0Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	46
teleop	283	178
endgame	48	71
foul	10	20
total	446	315

Result

Final score

446 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 84.5 pts

Match videos

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