ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

132.72 – 171.06

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294 ±10.5

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 45.94Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 72.52Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 14.26Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.1 ±10.4

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 17.96Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 73.34Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 79.76Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 772, 11227, 5912

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 772, 11227, 5912

Auto

32.5 28%

Teleop

56.7 49%

Endgame

26.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9263, 4976, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9263, 4976, 4917

Auto

32.6 19%

Teleop

115.6 67%

Endgame

23.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.7pts

Blue projected score171.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38.3
Score range: 95–209
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 210.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294Season APEX357.1

32.5Auto32.6

56.7Teleop115.6

26.5Endgame23.3

23Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	37
teleop	49	96
endgame	13	21
foul	0	5
total	98	159

Result

Final score

98 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Match videos

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