ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.91 – 158.06

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

112 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 39.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.9 ±10.4

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 37.16Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 50.17Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 18.58Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.8 ±11

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 74.39Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 23.83Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 59.84Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5870, 1334, 5408

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5870, 1334, 5408

Auto

31.8 32%

Teleop

53.5 54%

Endgame

14.1 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2609, 6854, 8089

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2609, 6854, 8089

Auto

47.3 31%

Teleop

67.1 44%

Endgame

37.9 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.9pts

Blue projected score158.1pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.1
Score range: 68–196
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 211.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.9Season APEX278.8

31.8Auto47.3

53.5Teleop67.1

14.1Endgame37.9

7Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	28
teleop	36	34
endgame	17	24
foul	30	0
total	112	86

Result

Final score

112 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 39.1 pts

Match videos

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