ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.18 – 181.12

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

324 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 73.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.8 ±10.4

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -6.45Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 86.88Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 145.75Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.1 ±10.4

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 21.52Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 76.31Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 83.29Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10514, 5409, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10514, 5409, 9098

Auto

57.2 27%

Teleop

114.7 53%

Endgame

42.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9263, 4976, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9263, 4976, 4917

Auto

34.0 19%

Teleop

126.1 69%

Endgame

21.8 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.2pts

Blue projected score181.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.1
Score range: 143–264
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 211.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.8Season APEX357.1

57.2Auto34

114.7Teleop126.1

42.7Endgame21.8

13Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	26
teleop	205	77
endgame	52	29
foul	0	0
total	324	132

Result

Final score

324 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 73.5 pts

Match videos

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