ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

411.82 – 130.62

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

362 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.6 ±9.3

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 183.69Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 24.35Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 203.78Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294 ±10.5

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 45.18Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 72.1Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 13.34Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 610, 6875, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 610, 6875, 2200

Auto

79.5 20%

Teleop

248.4 63%

Endgame

66.6 17%

Strengths

· 2200 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 772, 11227, 5912

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 772, 11227, 5912

Auto

31.7 28%

Teleop

59.5 52%

Endgame

22.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.64 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score411.8pts

Blue projected score130.6pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 281.2
Score range: 93–450
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 210.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.6Season APEX294

79.5Auto31.7

248.4Teleop59.5

66.6Endgame22.3

0Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	38
teleop	211	47
endgame	52	44
foul	0	15
total	362	144

Result

Final score

362 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 pts

Match videos

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