ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.92 – 160.54

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.3 ±9.8

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 41.25Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 96.03Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 111.64Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.8 ±11

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 74.98Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 24.41Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 61.15Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3756, 2702, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 2702, 3683

Auto

49.1 20%

Teleop

130.4 54%

Endgame

64.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2609, 6854, 8089

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2609, 6854, 8089

Auto

42.5 28%

Teleop

65.1 42%

Endgame

45.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score248.9pts

Blue projected score160.5pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.4
Score range: 123–287
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 210.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.3Season APEX278.8

49.1Auto42.5

130.4Teleop65.1

64Endgame45.6

43Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	68
teleop	145	72
endgame	30	6
foul	25	0
total	272	146

Result

Final score

272 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Match videos

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