ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

520.09 – 129.29

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

671 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 99.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.6 ±9.3

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 13.59Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 235.36Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 271.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.1 ±10.4

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 41.5Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 55.15Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 32.64Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4308, 4678, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

520.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4308, 4678, 4946

Auto

96.2 19%

Teleop

287.1 56%

Endgame

126.1 25%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5870, 1334, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5870, 1334, 2386

Auto

32.9 25%

Teleop

71.7 54%

Endgame

27.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.74 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score520.1pts

Blue projected score129.3pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 390.8
Score range: 92–557
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 752 vs event baseline 208.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.6Season APEX270.1

96.2Auto32.9

287.1Teleop71.7

126.1Endgame27.3

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	22
teleop	387	12
endgame	170	22
foul	0	25
total	671	81

Result

Final score

671 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 99.6 pts

Match videos

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