ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

407.82 – 282.85

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.6 ±9.3

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 182.32Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 24.77Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 200.73Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.3 ±9.8

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 52.8Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 107.01Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 123.04Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 610, 6875, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

407.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 610, 6875, 2200

Auto

84.3 22%

Teleop

229.2 59%

Endgame

75.2 19%

Strengths

· 2200 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 2702, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 2702, 3683

Auto

60.7 22%

Teleop

154.7 57%

Endgame

55.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.35 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score407.8pts

Blue projected score282.9pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 125
Score range: 244–447
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 562 vs event baseline 218.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.6Season APEX544.3

84.3Auto60.7

229.2Teleop154.7

75.2Endgame55.8

0Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	88
teleop	168	90
endgame	36	57
foul	35	10
total	317	245

Result

Final score

317 – 245

Prediction correct · off by 64.3 pts

Match videos

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