ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

274.03 – 271.11

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

282 – 363

Prediction missed · off by 49.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.8 ±10.4

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 9.26Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 103.56Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 161.21Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.3 ±9.8

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 48.64Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 103.25Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 119.22Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10514, 5409, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

274 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10514, 5409, 9098

Auto

59.0 22%

Teleop

161.8 61%

Endgame

45.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3756, 2702, 3683

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3756, 2702, 3683

Auto

59.2 23%

Teleop

141.3 54%

Endgame

59.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score274pts

Blue projected score271.1pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.9
Score range: 232–313
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 645 vs event baseline 217.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.8Season APEX544.3

59Auto59.2

161.8Teleop141.3

45.9Endgame59.3

9Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	72
teleop	115	242
endgame	73	34
foul	25	15
total	282	363

Result

Final score

282 – 363

Prediction missed · off by 49.9 pts

Match videos

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