ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

534.14 – 405.32

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

444 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 702.6 ±9.3

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 19.75Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 239.08Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 275.31Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 544.6 ±9.3

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 181.37Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 23.59Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 200.36Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4308, 4678, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

534.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4308, 4678, 4946

Auto

99.7 19%

Teleop

305.4 58%

Endgame

120.8 23%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 610, 6875, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 610, 6875, 2200

Auto

85.6 22%

Teleop

240.4 62%

Endgame

63.5 16%

Strengths

· 2200 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.44 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score534.1pts

Blue projected score405.3pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.8
Score range: 366–573
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 867 vs event baseline 214.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

702.6Season APEX544.6

99.7Auto85.6

305.4Teleop240.4

120.8Endgame63.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	77
teleop	217	159
endgame	138	147
foul	5	40
total	444	423

Result

Final score

444 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 53.9 pts

Match videos

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