ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.01 – 119.9

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

384 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.8 ±10.4

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 3.58Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 97.36Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 155.07Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270.1 ±10.4

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 37.96Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 51.08Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 30.86Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10514, 5409, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

256 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10514, 5409, 9098

Auto

58.4 24%

Teleop

147.0 59%

Endgame

42.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5870, 1334, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5870, 1334, 2386

Auto

28.9 25%

Teleop

58.0 51%

Endgame

27.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score256pts

Blue projected score119.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.1
Score range: 82–294
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 493 vs event baseline 213.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.8Season APEX270.1

58.4Auto28.9

147Teleop58

42.6Endgame27.9

8Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	19
teleop	246	65
endgame	72	20
foul	5	5
total	384	109

Result

Final score

384 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 69.4 pts

Match videos

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