Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
72.73 – 81.16
47%53%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
160 – 147
Prediction missed · off by 76.6 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 63.91Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 2.07Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 6.75Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.7 ±11
Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 66Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 8.41Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 6.75Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3683, 2386, 5408
46
/ 100 compatProjected
72.7 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 3683, 2386, 5408
Auto
22.9 31%
Teleop
32.6 44%
Endgame
18.1 25%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4976, 5912, 5870
39
/ 100 compatProjected
81.2 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 4976, 5912, 5870
Auto
13.8 16%
Teleop
30.7 35%
Endgame
44.3 50%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.67
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score72.7pts
Blue projected score81.2pts
Red win probability47%
Event bonus sample156alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -8.4
- Score range
- 42–112
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
412.7Season APEX256.7
22.9Auto13.8
32.6Teleop30.7
18.1Endgame44.3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 56 | 27 |
| teleop | 89 | 89 |
| endgame | 15 | 21 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 160 | 147 |
Result
Final score
160 – 147
Prediction missed · off by 76.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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