ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.96 – 18.78

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 3.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.1 ±11

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 87.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3756RamFerno

Season APEX 82.1Event APEX 41.04Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 12.18Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 152.7 ±13.9

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX -4.63Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 14.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 8.55Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5409, 3756, 5912

/ 100 compat

Projected

141 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5409, 3756, 5912

Auto

45.8 35%

Teleop

61.1 47%

Endgame

24.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4940, 7058, 6725

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4940, 7058, 6725

Auto

7.1 53%

Teleop

9.0 67%

Endgame

-2.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141pts

Blue projected score18.8pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.2
Score range: -19–179
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 210.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.1Season APEX152.7

45.8Auto7.1

61.1Teleop9

24.3Endgame-2.6

27Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	8
teleop	74	10
endgame	12	5
foul	0	0
total	144	23

Result

Final score

144 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 3.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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