ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

275.45 – 213.42

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

340 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 114 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.4 ±9.8

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 198.57Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 65.38Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 11.5Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307.8 ±11.7

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 37.45Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 126.79Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 49.18Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2200, 11227, 5408

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2200, 11227, 5408

Auto

72.6 28%

Teleop

155.4 59%

Endgame

35.0 13%

Strengths

· 2200 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6854, 3683, 4617

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6854, 3683, 4617

Auto

49.2 24%

Teleop

110.4 53%

Endgame

49.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score275.5pts

Blue projected score213.4pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 62
Score range: 175–313
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 210.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.4Season APEX307.8

72.6Auto49.2

155.4Teleop110.4

35Endgame49.1

19Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	16
teleop	150	17
endgame	50	17
foul	65	0
total	340	50

Result

Final score

340 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 114 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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