ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.89 – 293.84

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.1 ±11

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 78.29Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 15.58Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 5.02Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 606.8 ±9.8

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 26Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 89.56Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 178.28Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4917, 6975, 4308

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4917, 6975, 4308

Auto

20.4 22%

Teleop

36.4 39%

Endgame

37.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2386, 2702, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2386, 2702, 610

Auto

47.3 16%

Teleop

166.8 58%

Endgame

75.7 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.9pts

Blue projected score293.8pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -194.9
Score range: 61–332
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 541 vs event baseline 209.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.1Season APEX606.8

20.4Auto47.3

36.4Teleop166.8

37.2Endgame75.7

20Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	29
teleop	117	215
endgame	24	111
foul	0	5
total	181	360

Result

Final score

181 – 360

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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