ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.65 – 224.26

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.6 ±10.4

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 16.1Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 8.73Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 79.82Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 399.3 ±11.7

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 8.64Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 26.75Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 188.87Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9263, 10514, 4917

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9263, 10514, 4917

Auto

24.9 25%

Teleop

42.7 43%

Endgame

30.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8764, 6975, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8764, 6975, 2200

Auto

61.3 29%

Teleop

117.6 56%

Endgame

32.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.7pts

Blue projected score224.3pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.6
Score range: 64–265
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 225.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279.6Season APEX399.3

24.9Auto61.3

42.7Teleop117.6

30.7Endgame32.6

12Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	57
teleop	72	65
endgame	39	26
foul	0	15
total	126	163

Result

Final score

126 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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