ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.5 – 99.16

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.6 ±11.2

8764Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 76.9Event APEX 4.82Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 43Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 141.68Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.8 ±10.4

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 30.39Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 24.68Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 44.09Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8764, 772, 9098

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8764, 772, 9098

Auto

39.4 22%

Teleop

105.2 60%

Endgame

32.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6875, 9263, 5870

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6875, 9263, 5870

Auto

23.1 24%

Teleop

60.6 62%

Endgame

14.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.5pts

Blue projected score99.2pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 90.3
Score range: 61–228
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 210.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393.6Season APEX224.8

39.4Auto23.1

105.2Teleop60.6

32Endgame14.2

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	28
teleop	144	29
endgame	53	22
foul	5	5
total	235	84

Result

Final score

235 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.