ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

418.44 – 114.41

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

393 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 33 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.5 ±9.8

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 272.35Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8089Rockway Robotics

Season APEX 141.5Event APEX 63.8Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 82.29Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.4 ±10.4

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 52.73Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10514Mixed Métal

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX -11.63Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 73.31Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4946, 8089, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.4 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4946, 8089, 4976

Auto

75.8 18%

Teleop

264.1 64%

Endgame

72.4 18%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1334, 10514, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.4 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1334, 10514, 2609

Auto

25.9 24%

Teleop

48.2 45%

Endgame

32.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.79 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score418.4pts

Blue projected score114.4pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 304
Score range: 76–456
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 209.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.5Season APEX245.4

75.8Auto25.9

264.1Teleop48.2

72.4Endgame32.7

27Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	79	48
teleop	235	74
endgame	59	33
foul	20	0
total	393	155

Result

Final score

393 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 33 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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