ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

239.03 – 227.88

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

203 – 313

Prediction missed · off by 60.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.6 ±11.7

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 93.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 52.78Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5409Chargers

Season APEX 170.5Event APEX 92.92Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441.4 ±9.3

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 121.42Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 71.38Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 35.08Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2702, 4617, 5409

/ 100 compat

Projected

239 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2702, 4617, 5409

Auto

53.3 22%

Teleop

135.3 56%

Endgame

51.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3683, 4917, 772

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3683, 4917, 772

Auto

50.2 23%

Teleop

129.2 59%

Endgame

39.2 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score239pts

Blue projected score227.9pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.2
Score range: 190–277
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 208.4.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.6Season APEX441.4

53.3Auto50.2

135.3Teleop129.2

51.9Endgame39.2

30Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	97
teleop	117	162
endgame	3	54
foul	15	0
total	203	313

Result

Final score

203 – 313

Prediction missed · off by 60.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.