ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

181.36 – 188.14

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

168 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.5 ±11.7

4940Knight Vision

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX -6.22Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 142.72Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5870League of Logic

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 44.86Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 261 ±11

6854Viking Robotics

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 44.39Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 57.28Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 86.47Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4940, 9098, 5870

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4940, 9098, 5870

Auto

39.1 24%

Teleop

95.3 58%

Endgame

31.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6854, 1334, 4976

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6854, 1334, 4976

Auto

22.4 12%

Teleop

139.5 73%

Endgame

30.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.4pts

Blue projected score188.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.8
Score range: 143–226
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 209.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.5Season APEX261

39.1Auto22.4

95.3Teleop139.5

31.3Endgame30

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	33
teleop	93	85
endgame	10	23
foul	5	0
total	168	141

Result

Final score

168 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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