ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.53 – 253.62

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

325 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 68 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.3 ±10.5

6875Amazon Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 67.3Event APEX 28.07Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6975The Neil McNeil Brotherhood Bots

Season APEX 60.4Event APEX 15.41Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 272.05Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 393.9 ±11.2

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 27.81Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 15.7Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2200BCR Blackout

Season APEX 262Event APEX 210.11Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6875, 6975, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6875, 6975, 4946

Auto

52.5 17%

Teleop

192.7 62%

Endgame

63.8 21%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7058, 4308, 2200

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7058, 4308, 2200

Auto

61.2 25%

Teleop

141.5 57%

Endgame

45.1 18%

Strengths

· 2200 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score315.5pts

Blue projected score253.6pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.9
Score range: 216–354
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 452 vs event baseline 209.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.3Season APEX393.9

52.5Auto61.2

192.7Teleop141.5

63.8Endgame45.1

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	58
teleop	176	64
endgame	68	0
foul	15	5
total	325	127

Result

Final score

325 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 68 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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