ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.1 – 178.96

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 98.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 377.5 ±11.2

5408Kennedy Kinetics

Season APEX 89.2Event APEX 7.78Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 44.41Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

610Crescent Coyotes

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 170.91Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.8 ±10.4

11227Goose Goose Duck

Season APEX 106.2Event APEX 57.27Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4917Sir Lancerbot

Season APEX 120Event APEX 59.86Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 61.83Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5408, 4617, 610

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5408, 4617, 610

Auto

43.7 20%

Teleop

144.9 66%

Endgame

31.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11227, 4917, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

179 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11227, 4917, 2609

Auto

43.7 26%

Teleop

90.8 54%

Endgame

32.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score223.1pts

Blue projected score179pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.1
Score range: 142–260
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 599 vs event baseline 207.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

377.5Season APEX325.8

43.7Auto43.7

144.9Teleop90.8

31.5Endgame32.4

44Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	61
teleop	168	127
endgame	92	85
foul	5	15
total	311	288

Result

Final score

311 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 98.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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