ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.69 – 439.77

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

22 – 462

Prediction correct · off by 42 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.6 ±12.8

7058StrathDroids

Season APEX 56.2Event APEX 16.93Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4617DAUN

Season APEX 73Event APEX 36.58Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2386Trojans

Season APEX 126.4Event APEX 30.18Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.6 ±9.8

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 162.68Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1334OT Devils

Season APEX 86.9Event APEX 51.98Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 225.11Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7058, 4617, 2386

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7058, 4617, 2386

Auto

18.6 21%

Teleop

46.9 54%

Endgame

21.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9098, 1334, 4678

/ 100 compat

Projected

439.8 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9098, 1334, 4678

Auto

82.6 19%

Teleop

253.7 59%

Endgame

92.4 22%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.7pts

Blue projected score439.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -356.1
Score range: 43–481
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 225.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.6Season APEX582.6

18.6Auto82.6

46.9Teleop253.7

21.8Endgame92.4

8Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	102
teleop	4	284
endgame	9	76
foul	0	0
total	22	462

Result

Final score

22 – 462

Prediction correct · off by 42 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.