ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

302.35 – 185.65

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

267 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 491.1 ±9.9

5912Copper Hawks

Season APEX 63.5Event APEX 13.94Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4678CyberCavs

A+

Season APEX 303.3Event APEX 248.27Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX 40.14Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.7 ±10.4

4976Revolt Robotics

Season APEX 136.4Event APEX 93.54Rank 10Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4308ABSOLUTE ROBOTICS

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 22Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2609Beaverworx

Season APEX 99.6Event APEX 70.11Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5912, 4678, 772

/ 100 compat

Projected

302.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5912, 4678, 772

Auto

70.6 24%

Teleop

153.6 52%

Endgame

70.3 24%

Strengths

· 4678 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4976, 4308, 2609

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4976, 4308, 2609

Auto

30.5 16%

Teleop

115.1 62%

Endgame

40.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score302.4pts

Blue projected score185.7pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.7
Score range: 148–340
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 209.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

491.1Season APEX311.7

70.6Auto30.5

153.6Teleop115.1

70.3Endgame40.2

21Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	24
teleop	124	47
endgame	56	47
foul	30	5
total	267	123

Result

Final score

267 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 49 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.