ONT District University of Waterloo Event

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

218.29 – 442.07

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

258 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 497.4 ±11.2

6725WildBOTS

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 9.91Rank 30Record 3-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3683Team DAVE

Season APEX 197.1Event APEX 118.1Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2702Rebels

Season APEX 265.1Event APEX 90.28Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 616.7 ±9.8

9098FireHawks

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 145.76Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 271.56Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9263ALD Lions

Season APEX 100.7Event APEX 24.75Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6725, 3683, 2702

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6725, 3683, 2702

Auto

47.7 22%

Teleop

115.0 54%

Endgame

51.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9098, 4946, 9263

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9098, 4946, 9263

Auto

69.4 16%

Teleop

273.8 64%

Endgame

85.4 20%

Strengths

· 4946 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score218.3pts

Blue projected score442.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -223.8
Score range: 181–479
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 724 vs event baseline 206.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

497.4Season APEX616.7

47.7Auto69.4

115Teleop273.8

51.9Endgame85.4

26Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	93
teleop	137	276
endgame	67	87
foul	10	10
total	258	466

Result

Final score

258 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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